my country's power lithium battery market presents a diversified development trend
Under the explosive rise in sales of new energy vehicles, power lithium-ion batteries have also ushered in the "highlight moment" of the explosion of installed capacity, and their development prospects are bright. Facing the goal of global carbon emissions, the sustainable development of the power lithium-ion battery industry chain is particularly important. How to balance carbon emission goals and sustainable development is also a test for the power lithium-ion battery industry.
On December 2nd, the 2021 annual media communication meeting of the my country Electric Vehicle 100 Association was held in Beijing. At the meeting, Ouyang Minggao, academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and vice chairman of the my country Electric Vehicle 100 Association, made a speech on "Promoting the Sustainable Rise of New Energy Vehicles". report on the subject. The report introduces the development of new energy vehicles from four aspects: vehicle technology, sustainable battery development, charging and swapping, smart energy for electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel and fuel-powered lithium batteries. Thinking deserves our attention.
Võimsate liitium{0}}ioonakude tehnoloogia küpsus paneb aluse elektrisõidukite müügi plahvatuslikule kasvule
In 2021, the new energy vehicle market will enter a stage of explosive growth, and the sales and penetration rate of new energy vehicles will show a trend of rapid monthly increase. Industry data show that from January to November 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles in my country's market reached 2.99 million, and the annual sales in 2021 are expected to reach 3.3 million. Ouyang Minggao predicts that my country's new energy vehicle sales will reach 5 million in 2022.
Elektrisõidukite põhikomponendina, võimsusega liitium-ioonakuna, selle tehnoloogia täiustatakse jätkuvalt, kulud vähenevad, akusüsteemi struktuuri kujundus jätkab uuendusi, tera, CTP ja muud uuenduslikud protsessid rakendatakse suures ulatuses ja liitiumraudfosfaatpatareide tehnoloogia areneb jätkuvalt. Energiasõidukite tõus on loonud tugeva aluse.
Ouyang Minggao ütles, et uute energiasõidukite pika aku kasutusea nõudluse tõttu liiguvad võimsusega liitium-ioonakud endiselt kõrge-erienergia ja kõrge-nikliga kolmekomponendilise liitiumi{{ 3}}ioonakud või tahked-vedelad, kõrge-nikli kolmekomponentsed liitium--ioonakud. Parandage võimsusega liitium-ioonakude energiatihedust.
When new energy vehicles enter a period of fierce competition, the improvement of battery technology will play an important role in the competition of new energy vehicles in my country. At present, my country's battery technology occupies a leading position in the world. Ouyang Minggao said that my country's battery industry chain is relatively complete, and 70 percent of the world's battery production is in my country. It is difficult to shake the competitiveness of my country's power lithium-ion battery industry in a short period of time. He also pointed out that, however, other countries have not relaxed their research on battery technology, and Japan, the United States and other countries strongly support a new generation of high-performance power lithium-ion batteries represented by solid-state batteries, "but the industrialization of all-solid-state battery technology has not affected the market. It is estimated that it will take about 10 years for the pattern to have an important impact. The scale of my country's RD team in the battery field is far ahead in the world, and young talents are coming out in large numbers.
Installeeritud võimsuse kasv toob kaasa kogu tööstusahela jätkusuutliku arengu
Praegu on uute energiasõidukite tootmise ja müügi kasvuga plahvatuslikult kasvanud ka elektriliste liitium{0}}ioonakude installeeritud võimsus. 2021. aasta jaanuarist septembrini paigaldatakse Hiina turule kokku 92 GWh võimsusega liitium-ioonakusid ning aasta jooksul peaks see jõudma 150 GWh-ni. Ouyang Minggao ütles, et eeldatavasti on 2025. aastaks Hiina turul võimsusega liitium-ioonakude koormus umbes 600 GWh ja 2030. aastal 1500–2000 GWh. Uute energiasõidukite arvu põhjal võib ennustada, et sõidukiakude koguarv minu riigis ületab 2025. aastal 2000 GWh, 2030. aastal 7000 GWh ja 2035. aastal 15000 GWh.
Seoses kuuma elektrisõidukite turuga laiendavad tootmist kiiresti ka ülesvoolu akufirmad. Ouyang Minggao ütles, et praegune liitium{0}}ioonakude tootmisharu on jõudnud puuduse perioodi. Statistika kohaselt ulatub liitium-ioonakude kavandatud võimsus minu riigis 2023. aastal 1000 GWh-ni ja 2025. aastal peaaegu 2500 GWh-ni.
At the same time, the rapid expansion of production has stimulated the cyclical price increase of upstream materials in the battery industry, causing the entire industry to worry about the shortage of raw material resources. Regarding the reserves of lithium ore, cobalt ore, nickel ore, etc., the economic recoverable reserves of global lithium resources are 21 million tons, and the total exploration reserves are 86 million tons. Ouyang Minggao said, "The total exploration reserves have continued to increase in recent years, and the problem of raw materials does not seem to be large."
The industry's concerns are not unreasonable. The limited reserves of cobalt resources and the uneven distribution of global resources are the focus of the industry's concerns. Cobalt resources, the economically exploitable reserves are only 7.1 million tons, and the global resource distribution is extremely uneven. 2/3 of the cobalt mines are dependent on the Congo (Gold) in Africa; 3/4 of the lithium mines are distributed in Australia, Chile, Argentina, etc. Country; half of nickel mines depend on Indonesia and Russia.
It is worth noting that the battery "carbon footprint" is also very worthy of attention. According to Ouyang Minggao, different types of batteries have different life cycle carbon emissions. Taking the ternary high-nickel 811 lithium-ion battery as an example, the carbon emission per kilowatt-hour of the whole life cycle is about 87 kilograms. The relatively high carbon emission of ternary batteries is mainly due to the positive electrode material. Carbon emissions from the preparation of precursors and cathode materials account for half of the total emissions of ternary batteries. Compared with the ternary NCM811 battery, the carbon emission in the whole life cycle of the lithium iron phosphate battery is about one third less.
In order to solve the problem of battery carbon emissions, many domestic battery companies are currently shifting their production to the west, such as Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, Qinghai and other places, making full use of the "green electricity" resources in the western region. For example, the battery production plan in Sichuan Province has reached 500GWh, of which Yibin has 160GWh.
Akutehnoloogia marsruut on jõudnud mitmekesise arengu ajastusse
Kuigi praegune võimsusega liitium-ioonaku on üldkasutatav, on sellel ka kohti, mida ei saa katta. Võimsate liitium-ioonakudega varustatud elektrisõidukid on Hiinas jaotunud ebaühtlaselt ning enamik neist on koondunud Suure müüri lõuna-, kesk- ja idapiirkondadesse. Suurest müürist põhja pool, läänes ja loodes olevad alad ei ole palju hajutatud.
Sellega seoses eksisteerivad uute energiasõidukite turul koos võimsate liitium-ioonakudega, mis on viimastel aastatel järk-järgult avalikkuse tähelepanu alla jõudnud, vesinikkütusel{0}} töötavad liitiumakud tänu nende rikkalikule toorainele. ladustamine, madal-süsihappegaasi tekitav puhtus ja ulatuslik-kommertstootmine. Kui need kaks võivad moodustada üksteist täiendava vormi, parandab see oluliselt uute energiasõidukite paigutust autotööstuses ning suudab paremini ja kiiremini saavutada süsinikdioksiidi heitkoguste vähendamise eesmärgi.
Ouyang Minggao said that the breakthrough in hydrogen fuel-powered lithium battery technology is almost ten years later than that of power lithium-ion batteries. At present, the cost of hydrogen fuel-powered lithium batteries is in a period of rapid decline and will usher in an explosion. The hydrogen fuel-powered lithium battery has entered the stage of large-scale commercial demonstration, and five ministries including the Ministry of Finance have launched the national hydrogen fuel-powered lithium battery vehicle application demonstration project. For example, Beijing is recently implementing a demonstration project of fuel-powered lithium battery vehicles "Hydrogen Mobility for the Winter Olympics".
Ouyang Minggao juhtis ka tähelepanu sellele, et vesinikkütusega elektrisõidukite paigutus peaks samuti arvestama: järgima puhta ja vähese CO2-heitega{0}}eesmärki ning saavutama tehnoloogilise innovatsiooni kaudu uusi läbimurdeid vesinikuenergia tehnoloogias. Võtke turg juhtrolli, rakendage vesinikenergiat vastavalt kohalikele tingimustele ning ületage vesinikuenergia praegused raskused ja puudujäägid.
It should be noted that the current power lithium-ion battery market has entered an explosive period, and its dominant position will be difficult to shake in a short period of time. Hydrogen fuel-powered lithium batteries will also take the opportunity to develop, but its volume and scale, and even technology and talent reserves, They are unable to compete with the main body of lithium-ion batteries, so that my country's power lithium-ion battery market has formed a market structure dominated by lithium-ion batteries and supplemented by hydrogen fuel-powered lithium batteries, showing a diversified development trend of blooming flowers.
